Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have studied the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely split population where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the current situation. They composes two pieces that aim for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unity but refuse increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the offer from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
